In a Special Media Briefing by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that a bilateral meeting was scheduled between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China. The Foreign Secretary further went on to apprise the media that the bilateral meeting was to be held on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit.
“India and China have reached a deal on patrolling their disputed frontier to end a four-year military standoff. This was the first proper bilateral meeting between India and China at the delegation level in 5 years. The last one was on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Brasilia in 2019,” said Foreign Secretary in a media interaction.
Earlier, during the turn of the decade, the two Asian giants were engaged in fierce clashes in the Galwan Valley. Following this, the LAC became a highly militarised zone, with each side having restricted access to certain places. Following several rounds of talks at various levels and diplomatic engagements, both troops pulled back. In several areas, buffer zones were created. The momentum for this was built over several interactions and meetings between officials of the two countries. Some notable meetings in this regard were the interactions in early July and later in Laos in the same month. It is also worth highlighting that India and China have a special mechanism in place called the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC).
The WMCC is an institutional framework in place that facilitates communication and cooperation between the two countries on issues related to the border. The mechanism was established in 2012 after the idea for the same was proposed by China’s erstwhile premier Wen Jiaobao in 2010.
Some of the broad facets of the India-China border issues that the WMCC seeks to address are:
• Border problems
• Promotes cooperation and communication between the two countries
• Exchanges views on collectively strengthening communication and cooperation between forces on the border
• Explores ways and mechanisms to efficiently manage the border areas
The WMCC is made up of representatives from the Foreign and Defence Ministries of both countries. The Indian delegation is led by a Joint Secretary level official from the Ministry of External Affairs. The Chinese delegation is led by a director-general-level official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Galwan Clashes
India shares a long border with China, running through difficult terrains, such as the Himalayas, glaciers, snow deserts and rivers in the West to places with extreme climatic conditions. Roughly, the two share a 4,000 km-long border, most of which is un-demarcated. The clashes broke out at the Galwan Valley in the Indian territory of Ladakh between the two troops in June 2020. The region is considered to be of high significance as it leads to Aksai Chin, a disputed plateau claimed by India but controlled by China. At least 20 Indian soldiers were martyred in the action. Data revealed by Chinese sources claim that four chinese soldiers were killed. However, several sources, including
’The Klaxon’, an Australian investigative newspaper has revealed that China lost an approximate 42 soldiers in one of the deadliest clashes since 1962. This investigation involved comprehensive discussions with mainland Chinese bloggers and data received from mainland-based Chinese citizens and media reports that have since been taken down by Chinese authorities.
THE TRIGGER
The clashes broke out over two tents and observation towers which India claimed were built on its side of the de-facto border. Subsequently, it is reported that these were set on fire by the troops, after they were discovered by a patrol. As a response to this, a large group of Chinese soldiers lightly armed in line with the rules of engagement in the region, arrived and engaged in a confrontation with the Indian troops.
In the combat that ensued, about 900 soldiers of both sides were involved in a hand-to-hand battle, where rocks and wooden sticks armed with nails were used.
Post the violent clashes, the Government in New Delhi heightened scrutiny of investments from China, banning popular Chinese mobile apps. Additionally, direct passenger air routes to China were cut off. India’s Defence Minister additionally went on to highlight that the incident showed China’s disregard for the two-way pact between the two countries. On the other hand, China stressed that there had been a serious violation of a consensus reached by neighbours.
Kazan Meet: Signalling Dawn or Dusk?
In the final quarter of 2024, India and China achieved a significant breakthrough in the discourse of their bilateral relations. The two nations agreed to disengage their troops along the Line of Actual Control. As highlighted in the previous segment, this development comes after a series of armed confrontations, beginning from the deadly clashes in 2020 and exacerbating further in December 2022, with skirmishes in the Tawang sector. Since then, both nations were involved in prolonged tensions with rampant troop deployments by both sides.
Since then, multiple rounds of talks at the diplomatic and the military levels have aimed to address the fallout of the situation. These talks have focused largely on restoring the pre-2020 patrolling norms. In this regard, the recent agreement in Kazan is seen as a critical milestone. The agreement re-establishes patrolling protocols in the disputed areas of Depsang and Demchok. It also enables both armies to access their perceived boundary points. This also means that India can resume its pre-Galwan patrolling activities at Patrolling points 10 to 13 in Depsang and the Charding nullah in Demchok.
As highlighted in an enriching article by Major General Neeraj Bali (retd.), there was a great deal of variation in the reactions by either side. Indian leaders, including Narendra Modi welcomed this development during the BRICS summit in Kazan. Contrastingly, China’s reaction to the same was more sombre. The Chinese side merely “acknowledged the important progress” in the relationship.
Understanding the motivations behind China’s Decision
What was the motivation behind China’s decision to disengage at this point? India’s Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal notes that China’s decision to disengage remains speculative as of now. Several factors are seen as driving forces of China’s decision.
When Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi sat down for nearly an hour of talks in Kazan, it was their first structured meeting in five years. In the years that went by, the two leaders met no less than 18 times, including in each other’s hometowns. The two militaries are under orders to disengage in the two points of the Line of Actual Control, where the problem is persistent. What this means is that the two countries will no longer be engaged in an eye ball to eye ball confrontation in Depsang and Demchok, the two areas where the problem persists. While disengagement has been a priority, what remains is de-escalation, followed by confidence building measures.
A large part of the backroom negotiations that took place to ensure a disengagement is economic calculations. China is India’s largest trade partner in goods, with a significant trade imbalance in China’s favour. India has continued to pose a significant number of hurdles on Chinese investments in India. However, New Delhi hasn’t been able to grasp Chinese goods completely.
Earlier in 2024, the government-issued Economic Survey highlighted “choosing FDI from China as a strategy to benefit from the China plus one strategy. It further added that as the US and Europe shift their immediate sourcing away from China, it is more effective to have Chinese companies invest in India and then export these products worldwide rather than import them from China and then re-exporting them.”
For China, some of the major concerns that stare it in the face are its slowing economy and the strategic pressure from the US-led West. These concerns compel China to try to get access to the expanding market of India, among the most populous nations in the world. Beijing also wishes to put India in a neutral corner as pulling Delhi to Beijing’s side seems to be an impossible prospect.
One of the key economic considerations on the corridor of India-China relations is access to freer markets for electric vehicle makers such as BYD. It is said that this offers superior quality in a single charge.
Resource Management
While taking into consideration the consesus reached at Kazan, one cannot ignore the emphasis placed by both countries on resource spending. There is growing awareness on both sides about the immense spend in resources on the maintanance of as many as 50,000 troops. Coupled with this are also issues relating to logistics. The factor of a large troop deployment is coupled with issues related to supplying essential material and equipment to combat the extreme weather conditions prevailing in the region.
This standoff that lasted for nearly 4 years has also shown that despite China having an overwhelmingly powerful miliary force, there isn’t much for Beijing to achieve without the situation escalating into a full blown war. Additionally, India has been a resolute and well-equipped rival against a prolonged Chinese aggression.
Tracing back to the Galwan confict of 2020, India was quick to reveal the loss of lives of 20 soldiers. China’s declaration months later of the loss of lives on its side suggest a similar number of casualities if it not more.
Problem of the Asian Order
Economic and military facets have been central to the attempt at defrosting ties. However, a bigger challenge remains pertaining to China’s sense of hierarchy in Asia. China is seen as a power that complicates any attempts at mending ties with an aspirational power such as India. India’s aspirations are characterised by sturdy economic growth and its geopolitically significant location, for Western powers such as the US, Australia or Japan.
Another significant point that shows the divergence in both countries, as highlighted earlier, is the reaction to this development. Reading between the lines, the India side highlighted this development at the top in the readout issued. While on the contrary, the Chinese side mentioned this development in the 5th paragraph in their respective readout.
However, for their long term visions, both India and China are welcoming of a multipolar world order. While there is agreement on the nature of the global order, the views shared by either sides are not congruent vis-à-vis the Asian theatre. The Indian readout highlights a “multipolar world and multipolar Asia”. On the contrary, the Chinese readout, very carefully omits the mention of a multipolar Asia. China instead talks of increased democracy in multipolar institutions and other matters.
Resumption of Direct Flights
Almost two years after India allowed scheduled commercial flights, India and China walked towards resuming direct flights. Indications of this happening came first on November 19, 2024 when the Ministry of External Affairs elucidated about air connectivity being one of the many points on the agenda between both countries.
In congruence with a complete lockdown announced in India, during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government stopped all international flights on March 22, 2020. Following this, the problems that emanated following the clashes in Galwan, the ties between India and China deteriorated, quashing hopes for the resumption of flights.
The diplomatic solution that was arrived at by the two sides, besides including de-escalation at critical points, has also paved the way for the resumption of direct flights. This resumption of direct flights is said to hold significant promise for both countries. India’s air connectivity to China has been a rocky ride. IndiGo ventured into the China market in 2019 only to quickly scale back operations by early 2020, due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Similarly, even Jet Airways expanded into the Chinese market, which was again short lived. The airline ceased operations to Shanghai and beyond, shortly after its launch in 2008.
SpiceJet, another Indian airline had been operating flights to China in 2013. However, the Indian carrier met a similar fate when it was forced to suspend services to Guangzhou due to rising oil prices and other operational challenges.
Despite these setbacks in the past, the aviation connect between both countries continues to show some potential. Going further, it is expected that airlines on either side will seek to cater to the growing passenger demand, showing a resilient post-pandemic recovery.
This resumption in direct flights is expected to have a ripple effect on the global travel industry. With two of the most populous countries in the world with significantly influential economies, easier mobility between the two will boost tourism, business and trade. India’s vibrant economy will be easily accessible to Chinese tourists and businesspeople, with Indian tourists benefitting from improved connectivity to China’s major cities and opportunities.
The resumption is further expected to significantly impact international tourism, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Countries with major air connections to India and China, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand may also see an increase in competition as travellers might prefer direct flights between the two.
Way Forward
While the disengagement of both troops is a welcome step, it is necessary for India to tread on this path with extreme caution. In the course of India-China border standoffs, it is essential to learn from history. The history makes one weary of the possibilities this step could hold. The disengagement between both troops could either mean a fresh beginning for both countries or could be indicative of an upcoming set of challenges for New Delhi.
In this case, it is essential that India remains cautiously optimistic, anticipating similar actions in the future and also exercise strategic preparedness with a similar future in sight.
Sources:
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